As Super Tuesday votes are counted, the major question will be how lots of delegates each prospect won.
We almost certainly won’t know the respond to for some time.
Let’s wander by way of the night time. The very first polls shut at 7 p.m. Japanese time in Vermont and Virginia, and we’ll begin having results before long afterward. We could know rapidly who received people two states.
We ought to also master relatively early which candidates won the three other states in the East: Maine, Massachusetts and North Carolina.
Polls will near by 9 p.m. in seven other states, such as Colorado, Minnesota and Texas.
But the allocation of delegates to profitable candidates normally takes more time.
And here’s the crucial: we won’t know how the night has long gone over-all right until we get final results from California, which has 415 delegates to distribute — a lot more than 30 percent of what is at stake Tuesday. The polls shut there at 11 p.m. Eastern time, and it will just take a extensive time to depend all the votes.
Just after the 2018 election, it took virtually a thirty day period for the winner to be determined in the Central Valley congressional race involving T.J. Cox, the Democrat, and David Valadao, the incumbent Republican. Mr. Valadao finally conceded.
This time, California — like the other 13 states, American Samoa and Democrats Abroad voting on Tuesday — will have to determine out which candidates won ample votes to cross the 15 per cent threshold to accrue delegates. And California will have to do all those calculations both of those statewide and in just about every of its 53 congressional districts.
Of California’s 415 delegates, 144 will be allotted according to the statewide outcomes — so whichever candidates get at least 15 p.c of the vote will get a share of all those delegates. The remaining 271 delegates will be divided amongst the congressional districts.
The more Democratic a congressional district is, the more delegates it has. California’s 12th and 13th districts — in San Francisco and Oakland — have 7 delegates each, though the rest of the districts have four, 5 or 6.
Here’s a cheat sheet for the night time
As the East Coast success appear in, the detail to watch will be how previous Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont are doing relative to just about every other.
Mr. Biden should do properly in Virginia, North Carolina and Alabama, presented his potent aid amid black voters, who make up a massive share of the Democratic principal citizens in people states. Vermont and Maine ought to be helpful territory for Mr. Sanders.
If surprises take place — Mr. Sanders surging in the South, Mr. Biden performing much better than envisioned in New England — it could change anticipations of how the night will go. Also watch to see if Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who was powering in the polls, starts off hitting the 15 % threshold in a lot of locations and picking up delegates.
We’ll also ultimately find out how a great deal help previous Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has among voters. Tuesday is his initially time on any ballot outside of New York Town.
Since of Mr. Sanders’s energy in California — he has the premier crew, has elevated the most cash and is the most preferred among Latino voters — he is commonly expected to acquire the most delegates on Tremendous Tuesday. The situation is how massive a lead he will have over his closest competitor — and how many rivals will access the 15 percent threshold.
The delegate situations to view for
Heading into Tremendous Tuesday, Mr. Sanders led with 60 delegates to Mr. Biden’s 53.
There are 1,357 delegates at stake in Tuesday’s vote. If Mr. Sanders emerges with a direct of 250 delegates or a lot more, he will be in wonderful condition this spring to obtain the outright the vast majority of delegates necessary to clinch the Democratic nomination.
But if his lead is narrower, say 100 delegates, and Mr. Biden does nicely in the South and Texas, he will have a serious shot at catching Mr. Sanders in the delegate race, given the make-up of the states to come. That could signify a very long, bitter two-way battle.
Then there is a third feasible scenario: If Ms. Warren and Mr. Bloomberg make the 15 % threshold in extra spots than expected, they could restrict the selection of delegates that go to Mr. Sanders and Mr. Biden.
That would give political oxygen and momentum to two candidates who desperately have to have it and put the social gathering on the route to a four-way battle to the July conference in Milwaukee.